As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is Thursday, October seventeenth and Bitcoin is at sixty seven thousand three hundred. We have apparently entered the part of the election where it seems like it's a done deal. So the market may be reacting positively to this. If we look at the Major indices today. Look at the Dow Jones is up point four four percent. NASDAQ is up point six eight percent. The S&P is up point three eight percent. And the Russell two thousand, which was in the green for the last two three days, is down point three percent. Dollar index is up. The dollar is gaining strength, which is not necessarily good for risk assets denominated in dollars. But I don't think that this will necessarily continue for a long time uh VIX is down two point eight six percent really the main source of volatility for us remaining in the markets uh in terms of uh in terms of near-term volatility, relates to the geopolitical risk in the Middle East and what's going to happen there. The question about the Fed's next moves seems to be close to an agreement in the market that there's going to be a twenty five basis point cut in the next meeting and the other source of volatility related to the election seems to be going away as it as Trump pulls away in the polls and we'll take a look at a clip of that may explain why he's pulled away in the way that he has looking at some of the individual stock names And how they're performing today, Tesla is down. Point six, four percent and videos up now. It's I think at or. or very near an all-time high, a hundred and thirty nine dollars per share, up two point five three percent. Lithium is taking it on the chin today. The lit ETF is down two point three four percent. PLL is down seven point six seven percent. That's why you always take profits, folks. Bitdeer has pulled back from its recent run, as did Iron. Both of these stocks are up big in in recent days and so it's it's not that unexpected for them to uh take a breather as bitcoin takes a breather breather as well uh so if we're looking at bit deer it's up eleven percent in the last five days iron is up iron is up twenty percent in the last five days so it's no wonder that they both take a breather hymns is still at elevated levels close to I think it might go up to in the near term we'll see about that emphasis down now less than a hundred dollars As I mentioned, I touched upon this in earlier live this week. We I mean, this quarter, maybe or post earnings, maybe a really good time to get into this name. But I will let you know what I think about their earnings when they come out. They report earnings the same day Tesla does, October twenty third. Oklo pulled back from its monster run in recent days. So it was up sixty five percent in the last five days. Not bad. Not too shabby. Another nuclear power name. SMR has remained resilient today. ASML is back up. We covered ASML, actually added it to our watch list on PIF with buy below and sell above prices. Took a closer look at it. It's a really good company. um we'll talk about celsius today we'll talk about lucid a bit about tsm I'm gonna do a deep dive for pif members on tsm tsm is one of our holdings in our dividend portfolio up today close to uh twelve percent on strong earnings so we'll see how we adjust our buy below sell above prices for that name As-salamu alaykum to everyone. Shaykh Adnan, nice to see you. Shaykh Adnan, I think you should check out our watch list. It has been updated this morning and ASML has been added. Zuhair says, As-salamu alaykum, alaykum salam. None of you says... which halal stocks in the ev and ai industry do you think have a chance to increase sixty percent or more well you're in the right place if you're looking for those types of returns because we're looking for the same thing stay tuned as we go over candidates in equities sometimes in crypto to see where we can get that those types of returns thank you all for your comments So looking at the election forecast, it does appear that Trump is pulling away here. I've never seen an election that was so one-sided. And it seems like this ambiguity, this source of uncertainty in the market is now basically going away. And right now, the only thing holding... the market's back, I think from its full potential is the ambiguity, the questions related to what's going to happen in the Middle East and perhaps some nervousness around Taiwan and what happens there now. But other than that, it does seem like we're primed for a really, really strong Q four here. Now, if you're wondering why, and I am wondering why, uh, all of a sudden it appears that, um, It appears that Trump is a shoo-in for the presidency. You need look no further than recent interviews that Kamala did, which I think she didn't do herself any favors in. So let's take a listen to some of the greatness that we've been privy to. And Thomas. all right this is from a user called clay travis this is his clip I don't have the original video so I can I cannot verify the sort of authenticity of the clip uh but it does seem to be authentic frankly exhausted of brett more than people are exhausted frankly exhausted of brett more than people tell the country is on the wrong track they say the country is on the wrong track if it's on the wrong track That track follows three and a half years of you being vice president and President Biden being president. That is what they're saying, seventy nine percent of them. Why are they saying that? If you're turning the page, you've been in office for three and a half years. And Donald Trump has been running for office. But you've been the person holding the office. You and I both know what I'm talking about. You and I both know. Can we just appreciate here for a second how bizarre that comment was? So the interviewer is asking her, hey, you've been in office. People are really unhappy with the direction that the country is going in. And her response to that is, well, Trump has been running for president. What do you even say to that? Anyways, let's continue. I actually don't. What are you talking about? What I'm talking about is that over the last decade, people have become... But listen, over the last decade, it is clear to me, and certainly the Republicans who are on stage with me, frankly, exhausted... Okay. um, you know, it's, it does seem like that clip ends, uh, prematurely before she makes a point. But then again, uh, following her interviews, it does seem like she often doesn't have a point to make. And she just, she just, uh, talking and, uh, without really, uh, anything to say so let's look at this second clip this is from america so the country itself is speaking apparently so let's listen in here There's a lot of people that look back at what you said at twenty nineteen when you first ran for president. And there have been changes and you've talked about some of them. When it comes to immigration, you supported allowing immigrants in the country illegally to apply for driver's license, to qualify for free tuition at universities, to be enrolled in free health care. Do you still support those things? Listen, that was five years ago. And I'm very clear that I will follow the law. I have make that statement over and over again. And as vice president of the United States, that's exactly what I've done. All right. So is her response in any way related to the question that was being asked? I will follow the law. She's being asked, OK, you supported illegal immigrants applying for driver's license, qualifying for free tuition at universities, getting free health care. Do you still support these things? And her answer is that was five years ago. I will follow the law. I mean, put aside. you know, an interview for the president of the United States. If this was an interview for a manager at Dunkin' Donuts, which I don't think she would pass. There's no coherency here. There's no relation between what she's being asked and her answers. Not to mention before. If that's the case, you chose a running mate, Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota, who signed those very things into state law. So do you support that? We are very clear, and I'm very clear, as is Tim Walz, that we... As is Tim Walz. You know that she doesn't have an answer. She's in no hurry to get to her answer when she speaks like that. Anyone who says, you know, as is Tim Walz, is in no hurry to make a point. Must support and enforce federal law, and that is exactly what we will do. all right so I mean it's it's pretty remarkable that this is a person that's even a candidate for presidency of the united states it does go to show that really uh you know what they often tell children which is that you know you can be whatever you want to be is actually true so regardless of iq score uh you can you can run for president that's Probably true. I think if Kamala can do it, then you can probably do it too. Anyone can do it. Um, so let's get back to investing. And I don't mean to, I don't mean to, you know, pick on anyone. I, you know, as far as I can tell, um, She's just a normal person. I really don't want to seem like I have anything necessarily against her. But I just think that she's very unqualified. And she's perhaps not deserving of being in the place that she is in. But that's a whole separate topic. All right. So let's look at Lucid. So if you're looking for a place or a share in a business that's burning money, if you've always wondered, hey, can I be a partner in a cash burning business? This has always been my dream. Well, look no further than Lucid. Lucid Stock is has tumbled yet again so let's look at lucid today minus sixteen percent um following public offering to raise one point six seven billion dollars they're going to their the equity markets trying to raise one point six seven billion dollars Shares of Lucid dropped during extended trading after the electric vehicle startup announced a public offering of nearly two hundred sixty two point five million shares. Lucid intends to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include, among other things, capital expenditure and working capital. So that's great. So general corporate purposes. So, you know, pens with Lucid written on them, bonuses for executive suite, private planes, all of that falls under general corporate purposes. So, you know, if they are they have the flexibility to do any of that given the description that they've given and how vague that description is for the use of the money. um now shares of lucid in case you're unfamiliar with the company so this is a electric vehicle company that is burning cash every car they make they sell at a loss basically and they've been doing this for a while they've gotten some cash injections from pif in fact But not this PIF, the Saudi Arabia's public investment fund. And actually, Saudi Arabia's public investment fund is what is keeping this company alive. And they've committed to purchase of this new offering, three hundred seventy four million shares of common stock. The public offering will assist Lucid in raising additional capital while the transaction with its largest shareholder ensures they will maintain its ownership stake. I really don't know why the largest shareholder wants to maintain their ownership stake and make sure that it is maintained. what it is and doesn't go down, considering that would mean they would lose less money. Lucid on Thursday said the offering will raise gross proceeds of about one point six seven billion for the automaker to use toward general corporate purposes, which may include, among other things, capital expenditure, working capital and pretty much anything under the sun. The raised details marginally eased investor concerns. The stock was down about fifteen percent. Lucid said the public offering is expected to close on or about Friday. Following the transaction, IAR is expected to maintain its approximately fifty eight point eight percent ownership of Lucid. Yeah, you wouldn't want that percentage of ownership to go down at all, considering how much cash they're burning. Lucid said the deal is subject to certain conditions at the same price per share initially to be paid by the underwriter. The announced transactions come two months after Lucid said the PIF had agreed to supply the company with one point five billion in cash. So after one point five billion in cash, they're raising an additional one point six seven billion from shareholders. So, you know, a few months go by, they raise three billion in cash. Why is this the case? Well, let's look at this gem of a company. So today it's down thirty three point seven three percent. on the year it's down to forty five percent over five years if you were lucky enough to hold this you're down seventy two percent now let's look at the financials here to see what the heck is going on so revenue here is two hundred million operating expenses five hundred million so do you see anything wrong So operating expense, though, we haven't even talked about cost of goods sold. Operating expense is five hundred million. More than twice as much as the revenue is. And so this is a the economics of this business don't even work and. Some people gain confidence, okay, it's backed by Saudi Arabia's balance sheet, which gives it some security. I would say that's actually a liability considering there is less urgency for this company to reach profitability if it could just tap into... PIF funds when it needs cash. So when it's do or die, you have a lot more sharpness, you have a lot more urgency, you're more eager to cut costs, you're more eager to raise revenue. But when you have a ready source of cash, it will make you not have that same urgency. So I actually think the backing of PIF is not this channel. If this channel backed the company, they would be in much better shape. But the investment fund of Saudi Arabia, the backing of it probably makes it a bit more lax and a bit less eager to reach profitability, a bit less desperate, a bit less... sense of urgency, a bit more comfortable. And all of these are bad. They're bad for the company and they're bad for investors and shareholders of the company. So this is a company I would not touch with a barge pole, as they say. so the next company we're taking a look at today I get a lot of questions about them celsius they make energy drinks this is a very unique product that I'm sure no other company on earth makes I'm just being sarcastic every it seems in the last you know two decades everyone and their brother their mother their neighbors anyone who could, started an energy drink company. And for good reason. They have really good margins, and if they catch on, then they can do really well. And Celsius has done very well for itself. The question that comes to mind is whether or not this is a good time to buy into Celsius, considering that it's down Year to date, if you look at since it's high in May, it's down sixty six percent. So it's down a lot. I like to buy stuff when they're down a lot. If we look at the financials for this company, they're not bad. So if you look at the market cap first, put things in context, seven point five billion. Looking at revenue here, this is on a quarterly basis. Keep that in mind. So revenue of four hundred and one million. So we're talking one point six. If we annualize this one point six billion in revenue. On a, on a seven point four, three billion market cap, that's not bad, especially if their margins are good. So let's look at their margins. So operating expense here, a hundred and fourteen million. So basically, twenty five percent of revenue. Remember Lucid, their operating expenses were two and a half times here. The operating expenses are twenty five percent. net income here is seventy nine million so that's around nineteen percent for for their profit margin which is not bad that's that's a good profit margin so net profit margin nineteen point eight five percent cash is close to a billion dollars so they're well capitalized So assets, the liabilities, all of that looks good. and cash from operations this number is low wonder where their cash went so thirty nine point six four but it's in receivables so they because cash from operations is close to forty million but their sales are four hundred million so oh so it's probably um They have a lot of inventory that they're going through. They have a glut of inventory that they're going through. And that's why cash generation is so low. And that's why probably the stock is down as much as it is. Cash from investing, nine point two one million cash from financing, six point six seven million net changing cash is plus twenty three point seven one million. That's really, I think, what got. investors spooked is that cash generation is very weak um and so twenty three million whereas these if you analyze that that's a hundred million in cash generation but the market cap for the company is seven point four three billion so I get it I understand why investors were spooked That being said, I think once they get through their inventory, this is going to be a cyclical thing. But if they get through their inventory, assuming that they're able to hype up their products with maybe a new release or a marketing push or something like that, they can get back to cash generation or healthy amount of cash generation. So this, I mean, it may be a good pickup now. That being said, we look at... By the way, before you leave, if you're leaving, first off, leave a like if you enjoy these lives. And become a PIF member if you haven't already. But I will say that this is not a company that I'm necessarily interested in. The reason for it is because I don't see any moat around their business anymore. If you follow content creators, you'll know that many of them are starting their own energy drink companies. And so there's a lot of competition. There's no moat. You really have to hit marketing hard. And I think that eats into profitability. Eventually, it costs more and more to make the same number of sales because there's so many different options and you're hot one month, you're not hot the other. It's a tough business to be in despite the fact that their margins seem to be healthy. And so I rest easier knowing that there are moats around the companies that I invest in. It doesn't seem like Celsius really has a moat. If you look at the... So this is on an annual basis, keep in mind. So if you look at the... Net profit margin for this company, it's twenty one percent as of September twenty twenty three. So these are quarterly numbers. So September twenty twenty three, it was twenty one percent dropped to fourteen point four percent. December twenty twenty three. March twenty twenty four was twenty one percent. Again, June, it was nineteen point eight percent. Um, so actually the, the margins have remained rather, rather strong. So it does appear that this is, this is a good business. Uh, it's a good business to be in. Again, my it's my reason for not buying into it would be. The fact that I don't see a moat around it. They do seem to be operating it quite competently. But I'm going to stay away from this one. Again, it may be a good time to buy into it if this floats your boat. If you like these types of plays, the financials look healthy. I think they'll get back to strong cash generation because right now they're probably going through a lot of inventory that they have piled up and you know it may take them a quarter or two but they'll get through that and probably get back to a much more robust cash generation after that and it should be coins and that should coincide with a stronger stock price and a rebound in the stock but What floats my boat, what I like to focus on are names like TSMC, again, up north of twelve percent today, because these companies have a moat that's very hard to that's very hard to pass. And so, uh, I'll, I'll stick with those and not saying there's anything inherently wrong with something like Celsius. Um, this is something that, you know, maybe someone like Warren Buffett who likes more boring businesses, uh, may be interested in. Um, but I am not, uh, let's take some questions here. Um, would be great if you can arrange a pif meetup in the uk I would love to actually my sister lives in the uk so I do have reason to go there beyond you know the pif members so maybe inshallah someday if I'm you know visiting my sister we'll we'll try and arrange something like that uh uh yeah so no more lucid one more uh market tesla share we just need tesla stock price to reflect that yeah and keep in mind the shed uh while it comes time by the way and while it comes time to our amran as well um keep in mind we do have earnings coming up so hopefully uh those are strong and we see a stronger rebound here in tesla if we get a um a lower price I mean, it's already in our buy zone, I believe, for Tesla. So this may be a good opportunity to pick up some shares. Dr. Baus, I think you're a PIF member. If you are, you can check out our PIF watch list to see our buy below and sell above prices for ASML. All right, guys. Thank you all for coming. Leave a like if you haven't already. Become a PIF member. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.