As-salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. Another day of good macroeconomic news, but a day wherein indices fell nonetheless because the president can't stop talking about tariffs. So what we saw today was the VIX was up one point seven seven percent. The Russell was down one and a half percent. change this to regular. Dow Jones was down one point three percent. The S&P was down close to one point four percent. Nasdaq was down close to two percent. And so the bleeding continues in the market. If you look at the Nasdaq, we peaked at twenty two thousand two hundred. We're now at nineteen thousand two hundred. So a pretty big dip we got in the Nasdaq since our peak. And it's all because of its self-inflicted wounds, really. It's all because of tariff talks that honestly have, up until now, not really impacted anything except for sentiment. Sentiment is very low for investors. People are in a risk-off mentality. The probabilities for recessions have gone up. at all the major banks. And so this is reflecting itself in the VIX, which is at twenty five, considered elevated. And it is increasing the volatility and increasing the downside in the market. But as I always say, guys, when this stuff starts to happen, I tune out the noise, the macro noise. If you ask five different analysts about what's going to happen in the economy, you're going to get five different answers at this point. So best thing to do is to tune out all that noise and focus on the deals that the market is presenting us with. And so this is why I want to take this live to not go over what happened in macro today because every other channel is doing that. And that's not really going to make you any money because if you're trading off of macro, I think you're doing it wrong. What you want to trade off of is the fundamentals for the things that you're buying. And the value of anything you buy that is cash producing is the present value of the future cash flows that you expect that asset to produce. What's been on our radar, it's on our watch list on PIA. We were lucky enough to add it at a good price and we got a lot of paper gains on that good price, but then we went round trip and now we're basically where we started. But it basically has presented us with another opportunity to accumulate more shares. That company that I want to talk about is TSM. probably the most essential company in all of technology. This is a company that basically makes the chips that go into all of our technology, laptops, phones, data centers, AI. Everything is using basically chips that were manufactured by TSM. Nvidia does the designs and basically TSM does the manufacturing. Although, you know, Nvidia is much more known than TSM is. Now, Taiwan Semiconductor, the... dark cloud over this company is obviously its location, its geolocation in Taiwan. And the fact that China wants to take over Taiwan, I wonder if Russia gets what it wants in Ukraine, if that doesn't encourage China to take over Taiwan. However, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has been diversifying its geographical location and perhaps the lull in the Chinese economy and the need for stimulant in that particular economy. wards off the threat, at least in the near term, for a Chinese takeover of that. Recently, there was an announcement of a hundred billion dollar investment from Taiwan Semiconductor in the U.S. Seventy percent of the revenues of this company comes from the U.S., obviously its biggest its biggest customers being Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm, other companies in the US. So with that being said, if we look at the most recent statement from TSMC, and by the way, you know this company is efficient by the fact that they only have fourteen slides in their deck, in their investor presentation, and they're close to a trillion dollar company. So what stands out to me here is the fact that the gross margin is fifty nine percent for a manufacturing company that's very high. But what's even more impressive is the fact that the net profit margin and this is really where the efficiency for the company comes into play. Net profit margin for the fourth quarter, the most recent quarter, twenty twenty four was forty three percent. This is a very, very well-run company. And if you look at, whoops. And so this really tells me that this is a company that has a rather deep moat because when you're a manufacturing company and you're able to command margins of forty three percent, that means you have pricing power. There's no other way about it. And you're a very efficient operation. And when you look at, in terms of efficiency, I like to look at return on equity. So if I give the company a dollar, how much can it make it in one year's time? And in the case of Taiwan Semiconductors, the answer to that is one point three dollars. So return on equity is thirty percent. This is very, very efficient. And so The question now that we have to ask ourselves is, this is a great company. It's a great business. No one can do what they're doing, basically. Intel has tried. It has failed, basically raised the white flag. And that's why Taiwan Semiconductors has been asked by this new administration to try and help Intel out in various ways. And I recall the lesson from Warren Buffett, which is that you're much better off. buying great exceptional companies at fair prices than you are buying lousy companies at great prices. And so this is, I think, an exceptional company, Taiwan Semiconductors. The question that I'd like to answer in this live and why I was late is because I got lost in the sauce of valuation. But The question I want to answer is, is the current price, today's price, a fair price to buy it at? By the way, before I go into that, if you'd like to see my evaluations for all of our watch list and our conviction levels in that and our rankings of these assets, then do become a PIF member. and take advantage of the thirty five percent off that we have during Ramadan. Once Ramadan is over, the deal is over. We also have a limited number of spots. So if we reach it, then the the coupon goes away. So let's go to my evaluation page here. So revenue for twenty twenty five actual is eighty eight billion. Net income was thirty five billion. Free cash flow is twenty six billion. And and remember that number because it's thirty percent of revenue. I'm going to use that number when I'm calculating the projected free cash flows for the next five years. They have cash of around eighty billion, not too shabby. Total debt, thirty billion shares, outstanding five point one million or five point one billion or other, and we're going to We're going to see once we calculate the value of the company, we're going to see what is the target share price for the company and the dividend yield. So this is a dividend paying company. This is why it's in our dividend portfolio. It is now at close to one point four percent, which is a great dividend yield for a company that is expected to grow. So let's look at the, and here I use the consensus revenue estimates for this company over the next two years. And I extrapolate it for the two years after that. So basically a, a growth in is what is expected for the top line and then drops to around for and I use that same number for to come out with the expected revenue numbers for the next five years. And then using the thirty percent of revenue free cash flow that it achieved in twenty twenty four. And who knows, maybe it actually You know, as it grows, the free cash flows, it doesn't have to do as much capex or something like that. And free cash flows actually exceed thirty percent. But I went thirty percent. It's possible that they drop. So I went with thirty percent, considering that's our most recent number. And. um we uh we calculated based on that the cash flows that I'm expecting uh for the next five years so for example twenty twenty five that's uh thirty three billion in free cash flow and then you want to present value that bring it all so here I discounted to january first so it'll be a bit more than that but if you just discount it one year, basically assuming these cash flows are achieved at the end of the year, you get close to thirty one billion. And then you do the same for the next five years and add them all up. The present value is one hundred and eighty five billion. And then so we use the free cash flow number. Whoops. We use the free cash flow number. There's a We use the free cash flow number in twenty, twenty nine, sixty six billion. And then I assume the perpetual growth rate for so it normalizes that five percent for the company. That's the normal growth rate for the company. And then the the discount The weighted average cost of capital or the discount rate that I'm using here is nine percent. I looked at different sources. AI gave me ten percent. Different other sources that I like to look at give me a cost of capital of eight percent. But I went with nine percent here, mid-range. And then the terminal value is basically free cash flow in the last year. You don't have to know this formula, CFA formula. Don't worry about it. But the terminal value in twenty twenty nine is one point seven five trillion. You you discount that to today's terms. That's one point one four trillion. Add to it the cash flows of the next five years and you get to one point three to six trillion. And so the price per share, if you divide this number. by the by the enterprise value for the company, you come out with two fifty six. Now, the company currently, as I showed you guys, is trading at one seventy one. So. There's there's upside there between one seventy one and two fifty six is what I estimate the fair value of the company is. And I did a so because there's a lot of assumptions that I'm making here. um I assumed eight percent for the discount rate nine percent and ten percent I also assumed four percent for the terminal growth rate for the company five percent and six percent and then calculating the uh price per share for each one of these assumptions so if we assumed for example The most bearish would be a four percent with a, I'm sorry, let me see here. This was actually, so this is actually one eighty nine to twenty. and two sixty six okay so the most bearish scenario here would put the price per share at so with a discount rate of ten percent and the terminal growth rate of four it will put the price per share at one eighty nine still above where we are right now the most optimistic scenario would be something like a discount rate of eight percent and a terminal growth rate of six percent that would put the price per share at four hundred and eighty nine dollars if you wanted to go right in the middle With a terminal growth rate of five percent and a weighted average cost of capital of nine percent, that puts you at around two sixty five. So I always like to give PIF members a very sandbagged prediction, with a healthy margin of error. And so I tend to not go with the optimistic. And also, I like my buy below price to be at least close to the bear scenario. But in this case, regardless of how optimistic or bearish you are, if you're going with this The company is trading at a discount right now at one hundred and seventy dollars. So this is, you know, thank you, Mr. Market. I'll take it. You know, it's kind of annoying to always be opening your portfolio and seeing red all the time. even though you know, okay, this means a discount, irrationally, okay, if you're a buyer, this should be good, but can be annoying. I mean, you do like to, it does exercise the imagination to see your portfolio going up. But And right now, I think the rational thing to do is try and look for these gems of companies that oftentimes you're waiting on for a very long time and they're always trading at a very expensive valuation. You can't really justify buying into them. But now I think the market is giving us great companies at fair prices. And that's where I think Taiwan Semiconductors is right now. Hopefully you didn't mind all that, all those numbers. I understand not everyone, you know, maybe is familiar with discounted cash flows, but at least, you know, my thinking on the stock and I'm talking in terms of concrete terms as opposed to just generalities. So I do think that it is fairly priced and it's an exceptional company. All right. So with that being said, Rashad, is there an opinion out there that crypto will replace fiat currency? If you agree, what do you think will be, what do you think the timeframe will be? You know, I think the aspect of cryptocurrency that I find, and I think most people find appealing, is the fact that in theory, it should be decentralized. And so the regulation of the supply should not be beholden to the whims of a self-interested group of people. And that's what really destroyed fiat. So I do think that a new mechanism for issuing currency is in the cards. Also, the fact that currency has become digital is a trend that will just continue with time. So I think the future currency and the issuance of it should be decentralized. Obviously, digital has a lot of advantages to it. And, you know, using cryptography also has advantages to it. So eventually over time, the better product wins out. And so that kind of makes me think, you know, cryptocurrency does have a shot of replacing fiat. The timeframe for that, it's tough to say. Obviously, it depends on when we get an acute fiat crisis and the most powerful fiat there is, which is the US dollar. So I think that probably in the next ten to twenty years, you're going to see a huge change in the meaning of money. and the way that we deal with it salem jabar khal says I I hope I'm pronouncing that right I just sold my physical gold to buy the dip what's your opinion on this it's not a bad I don't think that's a bad thing now I don't know if you nailed the top for gold gold has been doing quite well actually um Wow, it's close to three thousand. Gold has been doing quite well. But I, you know, I'm just going to commend you for having the right mentality, which is that rotating from the assets that have run a lot and relocating to the assets that have suffered a lot in recent times. I think that's definitely the right mentality. Whether you nail the top or nail the bottom, it's tough to say. But I think over time this will pay off. not financial advice do your own due diligence of course salam alaikum uh thanks boss I appreciate it uh continue to snipe at positions with strong thesis in our portfolio yeah like every day I wake up and I'm like okay I look at my watch list and I look at the the rankings of the watch list and they're all you know assets that um I've reviewed recently the top assets, of course, and That's how I came across TSM. I was like, man, this current price is getting really, really attractive. So I wanted to reinforce the valuation that I put there and make sure that it was correct. So I went through the valuation exercise again. And that's really, I think, how you should take advantage of days like this. Don't worry about the macro. Don't worry about the headlines. There's nothing you can do about it. The only thing you can do is... take advantage of the opportunities that the market is giving you and then a lost pound title take care of the rest um midas says if you had a large sum available to invest how would you approach this pullback um I would dollar cost average into my highest conviction plays because they're basically all in the buy territory right now. And this is something that you don't often get. And I don't know how long it's going to last. So I would dollar cost average into those highest conviction plays. And yeah. And just don't check your portfolio until the market recovers. Nisna says, one question, is this the dip, the dip of the dip or the dippity dip of the dip? Ramadan Mubarak to everyone. Ramadan Mubarak to you as well. I really love our community and how we're able to put humor in these times. Do you buy Tesla or will it continue to drop? I don't have a crystal ball. I can't tell you the near term, but I think the longer term, you're going to look at two forty and be like, that was a steal. So, yeah, I would dollar cost average, as I told Midas. Any plans to buy Tesla? Yeah. I mean, we are at a point where we have an embarrassment of riches, right? So there's so many attractive opportunities right now to continue to nibble at. I've been pretty consistent in nibbling every day this week, and I, as PIAC members know, and I will continue to do so as these opportunities become more and more more and more attractive so with that being said make sure to become a pif member if you aren't already now is the time to get aggressive with your investing not when we were at the top when we are near the bottom and I do believe that we're closer to the bottom than we are to the top allahu alam not financial advice but that's what I think and uh so now is really now would be a great time to get started if you haven't gotten started yet with that being said leave a like if you enjoyed this live really appreciate you guys tuning in and until next time make sure to take care of yourself assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all