assalamu alaikum folks I hope you are doing well today is tuesday march eighteenth and the market has pulled back once again you look at the indices they're all in the red and you know what I'd like to do on days like today I like to take advantage of the opportunities that the market is making available And in this live, I will be going over one such opportunity and going over the valuation and my share price targets for that particular stock. If you enjoy these lives, do make sure to leave a like and become a PIF member if you haven't already. Seats are limited, thirty five percent off. Use code Ramadan. I'll show you it in a second. Everything's in the description if you're interested in becoming a member. Now, before I get started, my heart goes out, my prayers go out to our brothers and sister in Gaza who have been enduring something that no one has endured, really, the barbarity of the Zionist regime is something that I'm not really sure history has ever seen before. And this is obviously something that is directly correlated with the amount of cowardice that particular people have. So barbarity always increases with the amount of cowardice. So whenever you see someone who's really acts tough when dealing with an opponent that they know cannot really fight back. That person is a very weak coward. And so this is very, the actions of the Zionist regime are very befitting of what we know about them to be true. Now it is in terms of what can Muslims do? The number one thing that Muslims can do beyond talking about it, obviously talking about it is very important. And this is why Zionists will try to shut down any voice that exposes their criminality. But, and obviously wherever possible, you know, if you're able to help out someone who has been impacted, you should do that. But the number one priority is to get rid of the quote unquote governments, of muslim countries that are complicit with the zionist regime that protect its borders that provide aid provide supplies for them you know who I'm talking about so the number one priority for muslims is to get rid of these governments to free themselves of these governments alhamdulillah this has happened in syria syria is now free and I think that Within five years, it will probably be able to defend itself effectively. And probably within ten years, it will be able to defeat Israel on its own. But we need to expedite that timeline so that our Palestinian brothers and sisters don't have to endure another ten years of this. And to expedite this timeline, we need to get rid of these governments that are protecting the borders of Israel. That's the only solution, folks. Israel is not the direct problem. The actual problem are these governments. Get rid of them and free the Muslim people and Israel will solve itself. That's a solved problem in my book. All right, guys. Salaam, everyone. Salaam, Rashad. Nice to see you. Thanks for moderating. Nice to see you, Osman. Let's go over the stock of the day, which is LifeMD. Now, I've spoken about HIMSS before on this channel. And kind of the vibes were off for me for him. It's not as a business. I think the business is a good business. And so I was kind of looking for a reason to to sell my position in HIMSS when I sold it. And when I heard Amazon was getting in that business, I was like, okay, maybe this is gonna slow down the growth that they've seen and therefore adjust the forecast for this company and adjust the valuations. So far that hasn't happened. HIMSS has been chugging along quite nicely. It's a very well managed company. and it's expanding the opportunities that it has available for it. And so I think it's going to do well. However, they have a distinct sort of flavor to their marketing that kind of rubs me the wrong way. And so whenever anything rubs me the wrong way, I just don't take a risk on it. There are enough Fish in the sea, as they say. I would say LifeMD is one of those fish that are in the sea that is in the telehealth business. And I think has a very attractive valuation. Let's look at what I'm talking about in more detail. Before I get started, this is, by the way, so I'm consistent here with the format. This is what the market was doing today. You can see right across the board, yesterday it was, you know, mag seven basically was red. Everything else was green. Well, today, basically almost everything is red. Now let's talk about LifeMD. So they're building the, Well, they say the leading platform for comprehensive virtual health care. It's good that they have that ambition now because it tells you just how big the market is. If you look at the numbers, they're quite impressive. So, one point one million virtual consults conducted. So, basically, they're in the telehealth business, right, providing services. medical services online. And I do believe that the future of healthcare is going to be online. It's going to be convenient. It's going to be personalized. And it's going to be more cost-effective than it is today. They have two hundred seventy five thousand patients and their guidance for twenty twenty five is between two sixty five and two seventy five million. I use the two seventy million mark just so mid guidance in my evaluation. I'll show you in a second. Three hundred employees. They they have end to end compliance first platform for direct to consumer virtual primary care. Early mover advantage. I'm not sure I would agree. I would ignore that. I don't think that really matters at this point. What they do have, though, is affiliated fifty state medical group anchored by full time providers. So I think herein lies building a moat for telehealth providers is in the networks that they make themselves a part of. That's how you gain a moat for your business. They have flexible and proprietary technology stack. I'm going to really discount that. I mean, I think the technology is a solved problem. I don't think the technology is necessarily something that you can bank on that's going to defend the business. They also have this weird sort of seventy three percent equity holder in WorkSimply, which is a SaaS business in the document management space. So why they have that, there's a story behind it, but eventually essentially it has nothing to do with their telehealth business. So, I mean, I think if they can, it's a good cash provider for the company and it's a profitable business that provides a good amount of cash for them. So I can see why they're holding on to it. But just for the sake of focusing everything on telehealth, I would be a fan of them selling work simply. And I actually think that part of the reason the valuation for this company may be attractive is because it has worked simply. which isn't growing as fast as their telehealth business. And therefore, when you're looking at top line, for example, you may see it, you know, the number is not growing as fast as the telehealth business on itself is growing. And therefore, the valuation is being is being built on that growth rate that is being tempered by this work simply business. So if there were to sell this business, I believe their comps would be better, you know, quarter of a quarter year over year, and therefore, their true growth would be reflected in the valuations that a lot of people are giving it and it would perhaps support a greater market cap. So In terms of the size of the opportunity here, it is quite large. So we're talking about a hundred and seventy billion total addressable market in the US. And this includes the things that LifeMD is going after, male and female sexual health, weight management, diabetes, cardiovascular, dermatology, hormone therapy, integration, health, integrative. health and wellness and insomnia. And you can imagine that this list would grow and grow as they get more of these disciplines under their belt and they get more familiar with and get more good at delivering these services to their customer base, the opportunity here is really endless. And if you look at their growth here, you can see that it has been quite impressive. So if you go back to If you go back to twenty nineteen, their revenue was thirteen million, eleven million coming from telehealth, two million coming from work simply. Fast forward six years. And they are earning, they earned actually in twenty twenty four, they earned revenue rather is two hundred and twelve million, fifty four million from work, simply one hundred and fifty eight from their telehealth business. They're forecasting. going from two hundred and twelve million in top line to two hundred and seventy million in top line. And if you can see the work simply revenue, it just goes from fifty four to sixty. But the telehealth revenue It goes from one hundred and fifty eight to two hundred and ten. So the telehealth business is growing faster than the work simply business. And therefore, I believe that if they were just to sell the work simply and focus on telehealth, then their comps would be better. Their growth rate would be better and they could use that money to invest in the company, the proceeds from the work simply sale. So they're forecasting basic close to thirty percent growth in twenty twenty five versus twenty twenty four. And. yeah, one point one million patients and customers to date. That number should increase as well. Now, something that I always tell you guys is there are easy ways to make money and there are hard ways to make money. And that reflects itself in the margins for the company. So if you look at the margins, especially the gross margin for this company, you see the potential. So On the left here, you see the telehealth gross margin. It's going from mid-seventies. Now we're in the upper eighties. We're close to ninety percent for the gross margin. So every dollar because delivering these telehealth services, the cost of goods sold is very low. And what's good is that you really have a a strong economies of scale contribution to your gross margins. The bigger you get, the easier it is to, the incremental costs for every additional patient is really very low in terms of variable costs, very high in terms of fixed costs. And so the margin becomes better and better the more the business expands. So this is a good, I think, business to be in if you're able to make it work All right, so this is the code I mentioned, guys, Ramadan, twenty twenty five for thirty five percent off. Limited spots are available. Use it while still valid. Now, let's go to the. LFMD evaluation and looking at. These are some of the numbers that I mentioned. I won't go over all of them. Gross margin, twenty twenty four eighty eight point seven percent. They have thirty five million in cash on hand shares outstanding forty four point five million. Now, if you look at their operating cash flow. So what we want to do is perform a discounted cash flow analysis as usual. So if we try and figure out their free cash flow from operating cash flow and subtract the CapEx, their capital expenditures, that comes to five point four million. So their free cash flow margin, if we're comparing it to revenue, is to two point five percent. Now, I'm assuming that this free cash flow margin is going to improve with economies of scale. So I think that it can go much higher than where it is right now. So, a two point five percent can become four percent in twenty twenty five, six percent in twenty twenty six and maybe stabilize that eight percent as their offerings and business matures. Keep in mind, this is a young company. So in twenty twenty four, you can see here my and for twenty twenty five, I just went with what the what the business was guiding, which was twenty seven, two hundred seventy million. And then twenty twenty six, you can see the growth rate using twenty five percent growth rate. So I'm assuming the growth rate is going down, although I think that they could sustain thirty percent growth rates for many years to come, considering They're the total addressable market that we talked about. This is a really tiny business. We're talking about two hundred and seventy million expected in twenty twenty five compared to the size of the of the market opportunity as we saw close to two hundred billion. And and probably growing as well. So if you look at the year over year growth, I think I send back these numbers enough. So twenty five percent in the year after in twenty twenty six, twenty percent in twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty eight is fifteen percent. Twenty twenty nine is fifteen percent as well. And then the free cash flow margin, I went over that. So pre-tax, you can see how much money they are making in terms of free cash flow. And then post-tax, I assumed tax rate of twenty five percent. So if we were to use the weighted average cost of capitals to discount these cash flows, so I'm going to discount this these numbers over here. Now, if we were going to use an eight percent discount rate. and figure out how much these cash flows add up to, that comes out to eighty four million. And then if we use a terminal growth rate of five percent, which I think is very reasonable, the terminal value, you don't have to memorize this formula, but the terminal value ends up coming out to you know, one point one billion, but you discount it five years since that's when the one point one billion would be achieved. And that comes out to seven hundred and sixty million. Now, if you add the eighty four million that we calculated, which was the cash flows from the next five years, you get to a market cap of eight hundred and forty five million. divide that by the number of shares that we have right now and you come out with a stock price of eighteen dollars now if we are to look at lfmd and what it's trading at right now lfmd is trading at five dollars and sixty five cents now I don't like to go with the bull case, obviously. I like to sandbag even further. And perhaps the eight percent weighted average cost of capital was too much. So let me see. So market capitalization is two hundred and fifty million at today's price. So what we're going to do is we're going to assume different weighted average cost of capital. So if I go to ten percent weighted average cost of capital, the share price target share price is eleven dollars. If I go to twelve percent, I don't think that's necessarily fair for the company. I think it's going to be around ten percent, actually, considering this. I mean, they've de-risked their business a lot. Maybe if you asked me five years ago, yeah, twelve percent would be appropriate. But now I think they have enough momentum. They're actually going to be They posted a profit last quarter and they should post a profit in twenty twenty five. So I think a lot of the risk in the company has been has been taken out. But if you were to look at the weighted average cost of capital at twelve percent, then the share price would be six forty one. Still above today's price of five sixty five, but not as generous of an upside. So I. I think going with the ten percent, so the mid-range there, weighted average cost of capital seems reasonable. All of my other assumptions, I think, seem very reasonable. Now, when I'm setting the take profits price, I like to have a cushion there. So, you know, probably won't be at eleven, thirteen, maybe a little less than that. That being said, I think there's ample room for growth here, and I think that know a hundred percent return on this company in the next twelve eighteen months is not far-fetched so in these times where obviously not financial advice be sure to do your own due diligence I hope I'm just providing something that's food for thought for you that you can you know take a look at and let me know if you think I got any of my numbers wrong uh but you know considering the the s p as I said yesterday was averaging five percent annually over the since And gold was averaging ten percent. You know, if you're able to do something like this and double your money in twelve to sixteen months, I think that's that's a pretty good opportunity now to see our full list of. Our full watch list, what we like to keep an eye on and what we like to snipe when the opportunity is right, make sure to become a member. With that being said, let's go to some questions. should we invest in the S&P well there are some companies in the S&P that I wouldn't be comfortable investing in from a halal perspective so I would probably I think one idea is to invest in the sort of halal version of the S&P and That would be kind of a set it and forget it type deal. And if you do that, so I don't want to hate on investing in S&P. I think investing in S&P will do better than most stock pickers do. Certainly, there will be a lot less volatility. The S&P is down, what, ten percent? But a lot of these names are down fifty percent, fifty to eighty to ninety percent sometimes. So the cost of higher returns is is greater volatility. So if you can't stomach the volatility, I would definitely go with something like the S&P, but a halal version of it. Thanks, Sarshad. I really appreciate it. I really appreciate your moderation as well. Yeah, keep the people in Palestine in your prayers, inshallah. TMDX, that's actually Mohammed Saad is asking about TMDX and whether it's halal or not. I think it's fine. I think it's fine, brother. The only thing that... Let me check for you one second on... Yeah, it's comfortable on our site. So... I think one thing to... look at is um sorry uh yeah one thing to look at is the interest expense and the amount of debt that they have if it's going in the right direction or not and what you forecast you know for the next year uh that to be but um I have heard some good things about it it has been a stock that's on my radar perhaps I'll do a deep dive into it inshallah All right, with that being said, make sure to leave a like. Take advantage of these last days of Ramadan. It's where we've gone through two-thirds of the day already almost. So make sure to take advantage of the remaining days. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.